Welcome to The RingerNBA Odds Machine for the 2021-22 season. Based on team strength as measured by point differential—a historically strong predictor of future success—with adjustments for individual wrinkles like injuries and schedules, the Odds Machine outlines postseason probabilities, including each team’s likelihood of winning the title. The Odds Machine will update every day until a champion is crowned, so check back throughout the coming weeks as the league’s best teams battle for a title.
Today’s Games
| Home Team | Winning Odds | Road Team | Winning Odds | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Team | Winning Odds | Road Team | Winning Odds | Expected Margin |
| Celtics | 68% | Bucks | 32% | Celtics by 5.5 |
| Grizzlies | 48% | Warriors | 52% | Warriors by 0.5 |
Right now, the Celtics are favored to win their series 73% of the time. If they win today, those odds will jump to about 87%. But if they lose today, those odds will drop to about 40%.
Right now, the Grizzlies are favored to win their series 9% of the time. If they win today, those odds will jump to about 19%. But if they lose today, the series will be over.
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We’re simulating the postseason every day. This chart shows each team’s likelihood of advancing in each round and winning the 2021-22 title.
Postseason Odds
| Team | Make Third Round | Make Finals | Win Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Make Third Round | Make Finals | Win Title |
| Suns | 84% | 55% | 31% |
| Celtics | 73% | 46% | 27% |
| Heat | 76% | 37% | 18% |
| Warriors | 91% | 36% | 15% |
| Bucks | 27% | 10% | 4% |
| 76ers | 24% | 7% | 2% |
| Mavericks | 16% | 6% | 2% |
| Grizzlies | 9% | 2% | 1% |
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How likely is your favorite team to win in a sweep? What about losing in five, or winning in six, or going all the way to a nail-biter Game 7? These charts show the chances for each possible outcome in every series.
Heat vs. Heat 76ers
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Outcome | Odds |
| Heat in 4 | n/a |
| Heat in 5 | n/a |
| Heat in 6 | 44% |
| Heat in 7 | 31% |
| 76ers in 4 | n/a |
| 76ers in 5 | n/a |
| 76ers in 6 | n/a |
| 76ers in 7 | 24% |
Celtics vs. Celtics Bucks
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Outcome | Odds |
| Celtics in 4 | n/a |
| Celtics in 5 | n/a |
| Celtics in 6 | 40% |
| Celtics in 7 | 33% |
| Bucks in 4 | n/a |
| Bucks in 5 | n/a |
| Bucks in 6 | 13% |
| Bucks in 7 | 14% |
Suns vs. Suns Mavericks
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Outcome | Odds |
| Sunshine in 4 | n/a |
| Sunshine in 5 | n/a |
| Sunshine in 6 | 53% |
| Sunshine in 7 | 31% |
| Mavericks in 4 | n/a |
| Mavericks in 5 | n/a |
| Mavericks in 6 | n/a |
| Mavericks in 7 | 16% |
Grizzlies vs. Grizzlies Warriors
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Outcome | Odds |
| Grizzlies in 4 | n/a |
| Grizzlies in 5 | n/a |
| Grizzlies in 6 | n/a |
| Grizzlies in 7 | 9% |
| Warriors in 4 | n/a |
| Warriors in 5 | 53% |
| Warriors in 6 | 28% |
| Warriors in 7 | 10% |
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The 2022 NBA draft will likely feature a slew of skilled big men at the top, with Paolo Banchero, Jabari Smith Jr., and Chet Holmgren projecting as potential franchise cornerstones. Accounting for the final standings, lottery odds, and pick trades, what are your favorite team’s chances of landing no. 1, or a top-four selection?
Lottery Odds
| Team | No. 1 Pick | Top-4 Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Team | No. 1 Pick | Top-4 Pick |
| Rockets | 14.0% | 52% |
| Magic | 14.0% | 52% |
| Pistons | 14.0% | 52% |
| Thunder | 14.0% | 52% |
| Pacers | 10.5% | 42% |
| Trail Blazers | 9.0% | 37% |
| Kings | 7.5% | 32% |
| Pelican | 6.0% | 26% |
| Spurs | 4.5% | 20% |
| Wizards | 3.0% | 14% |
| Knicks | 2.0% | 9% |
| Hornets | 1.0% | 5% |
| Cavaliers | 0.5% | 2% |